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2021.10.26 05:31 Hektor_Ekhein [Translation] Reupload: LCK Caster Kangqui Analyzes GENG vs C9, predicts Semis Match
Reuploading because of spoiler in title...jeez...
Okay, today went 3-0.
This feels like the turning point. If GENG lost this, they would have been in deep trouble. GENG showed their main weakness in this game, the constant hesitation. If they lost this, they would have been sweeped. The turning point was Smite. GENG won off winning every single Smite fight. Clid and Bdd did everything. Aatrox holding off 3 people at herald is actually impossible. The normal expectation for him is just to not die in lane, not dominate Yasuo from the getgo. Aatrox is really weak in the early game because his cooldowns are so long. I was really confused while watching the game.
Pickbans? I think C9 actually did pretty well. C9's comp was fine, they planned for Zven to lock down botlane and avoid skirmishes there while Nautilus roamed, which is a good strategy to shutdown Lulu. In an enchanter vs roaming support battle, having Ziggs to clear out the wave quickly feels like C9 won that part of pickbans. (C9's) Top and jungle picks were very smart as well, with Aerys Jarvan countering Kennen and Lee Sin beating Xin Zhao as well as having synergy with Yasuo. But the Aatrox pick was a real nice pick (for GENG), because C9's comp needed to get in close and thus GENG needed something to smash them when they did. But C9 banned some champions that satisfied that need like Renekton and Sett, and that's why GENG briefly hovered Vladimir, a known Yasuo-Gragas counter. Changing to Aatrox was okay.
So C9's original plan was to heavily camp top and force Kennen into a certain-death situation, but Bdd played so well that C9's jungle and mid couldn't go top. Kennen should have kept dying in lane, and Aatrox burnt TP to cover, but Bdd was just to good. Bdd and Clid just won this game by themselves - Bdd created the early game leads, and Clid negated any sort of C9 comeback lategame with his Smites. If Zven had taken Elder with his ult, C9 would have won. Elder has so much value to C9 because GENG's comp doesn't really use Elder buff that well since they don't have good engage and can't teamfight well, while C9 has tons of engage and love teamfights. If C9 got Elder, the game is over. Nautilus just hooks, Jarvan just whooshes in, and Ziggs throws down some skillshots, and the game ends. So the game's deciding point was Elder, and Clid + Bdd just 2v8'ed. If Bdd hadn't played as well as he did, top would have died 5 times. Even if GENG tried to save top, C9's comp would have streamrolled them. But Bdd prevented that from happening.
So the casters did say that just surviving in lane is okay, but if you actually just passively farm, your top dies. But Bdd didn't do that, he kept trading heavily with Perkz to prevent Perkz from roaming top in good condition. I also talked about how Aphelios is broken at 8 min herald, and today's match was another example. Aphelios is so broken - he can go to herald, but he doesn't need to go. Every ADC at worlds just preparing the red/white weapon setup at 8 minutes is now the norm. And that setup is also so good at getting lane prio. You can go up and contest herald, or just stay and farm plates.
So GENG's chronic gameplay problems appeared and I thought the game would be close, but they clinched off the W, so I was conflicted on whether they overcame their issues or not. I think we need to see the next series to be sure. Rascal's performance...I think both of GENG's top laners are both so-so, so either the players need to step up or the team needs to draft around them. When he vascilated between diving in or not, I think he's at the point where he doesn't trust his own judgement. We just have to wait for the player to regain confidence, it's a really difficult issue. So in this meta where Ornn can't be picked, as well as Goredrinker buffs and tank item nerfs means that tank tops can't appear easily. This makes the top lane super important, and I think it's part of why the West did so badly since the West likes to lock down top.
Okay, let's talk about Malphite. Malphite is a victim here imo. Malphite did all it could. I think C9 prepared well for this game. If you look at C9's comp, they pick Poppy, then lastpick Malphite and Sylas. But GENG picked Jhin, meaning they needed a DPS AP mage like Syndra or Orianna, but if you pick Orianna then GENG's comp lacks initiative and over-relies on Bdd. So Syndra was the only pick Bdd could take. Then Malphite and Poppy are super good into GENG's comp. Even looking at top, Malphite doesn't like skirmishes or early dives, but Graves has awful dive potential, so usually they'll handshake lane. But C9 probably didn't expect Perkz to die that quickly. At least not before the mids made their first TP back to lane. But Perkz died so fast, he needed to TP while Bdd saved his to roam top and kill Malphite. And that was the end of Malphite. Malphite did no wrong, it was a good pick. But Sylas died too fast. It's okay for Sylas to die, but he died too fast. Team composition-wise, Sylas could have died once or twice, but again, he died too fast.
What's important about dying too quickly is that even in Poppy vs Lee Sin, Lee Sin does get countered, but he has one turn advantage against Poppy. Perkz only needed to wait out that one turn, but he died... I think C9 prepared their draft really well. GENG's comp doesn't have enough damage to kill tanks. Graves is good at bursting dealers, Syndra can't use her skills on tanks or else she dies, and Jhin doesn't kill tanks well. In the rock-paper-scissors meta, DPS champions kill tanks, and tanks kill burst champions. But GENG didn't have enough DPS, so Malphite was a good pick. C9 prepared their draft really well, but what does it matter? Mid died too fast, and then the enemy mid went top and now your top died too. It's just a complete mid difference. Bdd created that kill by himself. Lee Sin was just like chearleading from the sidelines and got a lucky kill. So now he comes there again, "Hey, I heard this lane gives out free kills!" And Bdd's like "Yeah, hey you're back, here's another free kill!" Normally, that's not supposed to happen. Ganking with a non-targetting skill like Scatter the Weak is a recipe for wasting pathing and time. Yeah, it's great if you stun someone, but if you don't then the jungler loses out on pathing and camps while the counterpick Poppy scales. But Bdd hit his stuns every single time, then you have to go and gank. And Lee Sin got all the kills too!
So mid got dumpstered, but Fudge took the hit. Fudge rotted away, and the game was lost. If this game played out evenly...no not even that, if GENG had like a 6:4 advantage, they would have had a hard time due to draft difference. C9's comp has so much insane synergy. Look at GENG's comp, they have so many immobile champions. Against immobiles, you need a second, a third engage to kill them after wasting their flashes. Assume Leona baits out flash, then Malphite engages. If GENG times their flashes well to escape both Malphite and Leona, then Perkz with Rakan ult just jumps into them and kills everyone. C9's draft was so slick and clean. And when C9 jumps in, Rakan and Lee Sin can't do anything because of Poppy. Jhin is just reloading, and even if he hits something, the front line is Leona Poppy Malphite. He can't kill anyone. The teamfighting difference was just huge. But....GG...just GG.
So C9 now realize here, "ah, Perkz is having a bad time against Bdd". So they improve their draft. Since it seems that Perkz can't stand his ground with a losing matchup, they give him a winning one. C9 takes Syndra quickly, and for top, Graves that does well against Renekton in all stages of the game. Graves outscales Renekton and is pretty tanky as well. He's essentially Malphite with a shotgun. And the enemy's top/jungle is AD? Sweeeet. Graves is a great pick. Jarvan was picked because GENG's comp can't melt down tanks. It's a reasonable pick. Syndra vs Zoe is sort of 50/50 or maybe Lee Sin + Zoe is slightly better. Leona Miss Fortune vs Jhin Rakan? Leona and Miss Fortune both have higher highs and better lows. So that's the lane comparison, except for a slight advantage in mid/jungle for GENG, C9 are better. But Blaber made a great play and took out Zoe's flash. That's a victory call right there for C9. There's no volatility now, all lanes are winning. Whether you look at the 1v1s or the 5v5s, GENG can't kill tanks. They're all burst skill champions, autoattacks are meaningless. But you can't nuke a Graves, you can't nuke a Jarvan, you can't nuke a Leona.
However, whenever you play with other people like doing raids, it seems like you're fighting against one big boss monster, but you're actually fighting against your teammates. This has been proven throughout history. It's like a team project. So C9's coaching staff were really smart in the sense they put two leashes on Perkz. "Hey, Perkz is kinda overaggressing today, let's give him something without mobility". It's hard to overextend and throw with Syndra. At the same time, they took lane prio into consideration. I applaud their strategy. But ah....if you watch LCS you probably know this, but "Big Game Zven Mode" isn't a good thing. Historically, Zven is a dude who has made really weird mistakes in big games. Before I saw those, I rated Zven highly, and Reapered did too. Zven plays well during the regular season, he's solid and he has a wide champion pool. He's a well-rounded player. But during the recent 2~3 years, he's shown he's weak in important games. GENG did well to make a comeback, they found good fights and Lee Sin had some great kicks, but as many people mentioned, getting kicked by a Lee Sin without flash while holding flash, heal, and Galeforce makes no sense, it can't happen at a pro level.
So Clid and Bdd 2v8'ed this game too. Actually Clid did most of the work since Bdd was dumpstered on Zoe. But Bdd created windows of opportunity. Clid's kicks were great, but at the teamfight for fourth drake, C9 abandoned their lanes to group around the drake pit. Normally, the team with the advantage can push their lanes and then group up. So what does this imply? "That Smite is fucking annoying, we're gonna get our drake stolen if we don't prepare well". But this is so weird, because the enemy has Zoe and Jhin, both long-range champions, and if you don't push lane, then you're just hemmed in inside the pit. C9 should have pushed lanes and forced GENG to spread themselves thin, but over-emphasizing drake just made C9 imprison themselves inside the pick. Then since there's a big fat target, Jhin and Zoe start poking, C9 starts sleeping, and get kicked. C9 were too afraid of Clid, and so they lost and GENG won.
GENG's series MVP is Clid and Bdd. Clid's crazy Smites and the return of his surgical plays. Bdd needs no further elaboration. A hidden facilitator would be Ruler's solid play. These 3 played really well and created a lot of opportunities. Now for the good news for C9, Fudge and Blaber are young players. They have several years ahead of them. If you get a good import for ADC, maybe things can change. But it's difficult because Zven is a good ADC within the LCS, so it's a complicated issue. Zven is a pretty good ADC in the LCS, and seeing that they went to quarters and didn't look totally broken, I think the players are somewhat satisfied with their results. It wasn't a total failure for C9, they did find some success.
GENG vs EDG:
Rascal was underwhelming, but ironically, EDG might be the best matchup for them because EDG's top is underwhelming too. Since Fudge, arguably the best top laner in the upper bracket is now eliminated, it's time to fight for the king of the upper bracket. Flandre's play is unpredictable. He's not a bad laner, he was really good back in the way. So he's not bad. But he's always dead in weird positions. "Uh why are you lying dead here?" If you keep this up, you lose the game! But since his opponent isn't Xiaohu and Rascal isn't at his best, Flandre can keep his cool and focus on his scaling, and maybe not die. Looking at the bot lane, EDG and GENG are really similar. Both play hard for lane, as the meta dictates. Being solid is much better than looking for outplays now.
In the end, the fight between mid/jungle will be important. I think Bdd can still do everything. Scout wasn't that hot in his last series. Yeah...it's difficult...GENG vs EDG? There's a lot of variables at play here. Top seems important, but if we set Flandre as slightly ahead, and GENG look slightly better in mid/jungle... I think Scout's form will be the deciding factor. If Mr. Scout plays like he did in quarters, EDG will lose, but if he plays better, EDG will win. There's nothing to say about Bdd, because Bdd playing well is like the bare minimum. Bdd is always good, there's no variable here. So the other midlaner's play will decide the series.
GENG did win and move on, but uh...it's difficult. If you look at how GENG wins, it's just "Mr. Bdd, we came this far, what can I say? You have to do everything". Look at Game 3's draft, GENG's comp has no win condition other than Zoe doing everything. Just like Kuro said on the analyst desk, GENG has no plan except for Zoe Lee Sin popping off. "What can I say? Bdd you have to do everything!" This isn't going to work forever, but GENG did keep winning with this strategy, and trying to change it might turn them into HLE. HLE tried to play through top during LCK Summer and failed, then returned to playing through bot. If HLE didn't revert their style, they wouldn't have gotten to quarters. Obviously they then bombed out, but the team difference was too big. So it's a really difficult situation, changing their style is bad but keeping it is bad too. So what can we say, Bdd has to do everything.
I will respect GENG for both playing through mid/jungle or changing their playstyle. Because they've kept winning. I respect them for that.
DK and T1? Both teams really didn't struggle throughout their Worlds run. But T1 played a lot of Aphelios. They played 7 games of Aphelios and it's a really good pick. But now teams have realized that Aphelios is broken, so T1 probably isn't going to be able to play Aphelios. Then I don't know what sort of strategy T1 will pick now. Aphelios spamming Crescendum at 8 min is so fucking broken, like other teams will go through shenanigens to pick up Herald but Aphelios goes "lol wut I have white gun". I'll do my semis predictions if I have the time later.
[Some Korean memes were liberally used in Kangqui's review, especially regarding Bdd. The phrase "Bdd has to do everything" is used in replacement for "Bdd가 해줘야 해요!" and is used whenever GENG's original plan goes to shit and Bdd needs to 1v9 to salvage the win.
"Mr. Bdd, we came this far..." is used in replacement for "보성아...우야노..여까지 왔는데...", which is a paraphrase of a memorable baseball quote regarding the Lotte Giants star pitcher Dong-won Choi, who famously replied with "Okay, let's do this" and went on to pitch 4 games of the Bo7 finals.]
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